In the heart of the bustling metropolis of New York City, beneath the towering skyscrapers, lies a hidden concern that researchers are bringing to the forefront: the city's gradual sinking. As if the rising oceans were not worrisome enough, the weight of the city itself, with its massive infrastructure and humanity, is causing subsidence, with the landmass sinking at an average rate of 1 to 2 millimeters per year. This natural process of compression occurs worldwide, but recent studies have aimed to understand how the city's own weight is exacerbating the issue.
New York City's Slow Sinking

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The sheer scale of New York City is awe-inspiring, with over 1 million buildings spread across its five boroughs. Astonishingly, these structures contribute to a staggering weight of approximately 1.7 trillion tons (1.5 trillion metric tons) of concrete, metal, and glass, which is equivalent to the mass of 4,700 Empire State Buildings. This tremendous load presses down on the Earth's surface, leading to variations in compression rates across different areas of the city. While Midtown Manhattan's skyscrapers, built on solid bedrock, experience minimal compression, other regions such as Brooklyn, Queens, and downtown Manhattan, sitting on looser soil, face faster sinking rates.


Although the sinking process is gradual, lead researcher Tom Parsons from the U.S. Geological Survey warns that certain parts of the city will inevitably succumb to the encroaching waters. The ground is steadily subsiding, while the water levels continue to rise. It is only a matter of time before these two meet, reshaping the city's landscape. However, there is no immediate need to panic and invest in life preservers. Parsons reassures us that the study highlights the incremental contribution of buildings to the shifting topography, rather than a sole cause. The research team employed satellite imaging, data modeling, and rigorous mathematical assumptions to draw their conclusions.

It is essential to recognize that the sinking phenomenon in New York City will take hundreds of years to transform it into a modern-day Venice, which is famously sinking into the Adriatic Sea. Nevertheless, specific areas of the city are more vulnerable than others. Parsons emphasizes the concern regarding Manhattan, particularly the southern part of the island, where the average elevation stands at a mere 1 or 2 meters (3.2 or 6.5 feet) above sea level. With such proximity to the waterline, the potential risks become more significant.

In addition to the sinking land, the rising oceans pose a grave threat to the city. As the land sinks at a similar rate to the sea level rise, the changing climate could expedite the timeline for certain areas of New York City to be submerged underwater. This intricate interaction between sinking land and rising oceans necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the situation. Parsons reminds us that buildings are not the sole culprits; numerous factors contribute to the overall challenge. By identifying and raising awareness of these issues in advance, we can effectively address them before they evolve into more significant problems.



New York City's Slow Sinking



New York City already faces the peril of flooding due to severe storms, which can cause the ocean to surge inland or deluge neighborhoods with torrential rain. Tragically, the consequences of such flooding can be destructive and even deadly, as exemplified by the devastating Superstorm Sandy a decade ago and the lasting impact of Hurricane Ida two years back. In light of this, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a senior researcher at Columbia University's Climate School, emphasizes the significance of this study. He asserts that the findings can inform policymakers and aid in the formulation of ongoing plans to combat, or at the very least, mitigate the consequences of rising tides.

The urgency of taking proactive measures cannot be overstated. Waiting for a critical threshold of sea level rise to be crossed would be unwise, as it may result in missed opportunities to implement anticipatory actions and preparedness measures. As the article by the Associated Press highlights, New Yorkers may initially find it hard to believe such predictions. However, when one contemplates the abundance of skyscrapers, apartment buildings, corporate offices, and retail spaces dominating the city's skyline, the notion becomes more plausible.

It is important to note that New York City is not the only location grappling with the issue of sinking land. San Francisco, another bustling urban center, also imposes substantial pressure on the ground and contends with active earthquake faults. Similarly, in Indonesia, the government is preparing for a potential relocation of its capital city, Jakarta, as it sinks into the Java Sea, making way for a new capital to be constructed on higher ground on a different island.